We have cracked the code on NBA Totals!
With the NBA getting started I thought I would share my buddies B-ball over-unders
This is a more simple formula for figuring possessions:
-Possessions = .96 * (FGA － ORb + TO + (.44 * FTA))
Field goal attempt minus offensive rebounds plus turnovers plus (free throw attempts X .44)
-multiply all of this times .96
You should have an idea how that pace factor is arrived at so you can look at box scores the next day and see why your totals were off (if they were). This will help you with your overall feel for the teams. Also,
sometimes they just shoot a lot better or worse than their average. Sometimes the pace is a lot faster than forecasted, or maybe there were a lot more fouls than usual. Over time, it will always go toward the average so there is potential for a long term profit over time.
Don’t forget that you have to use your opinion on the more lopsided match ups where one team likes to run a lot for example, N. Y., Golden State, etc. vs. Charlotte or San Antonio. Usually, I will give the better team’s pace more weight or the home team, or both….
Here is the formula to figure pace factor(possessions) for each team…
Possessions (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); the formula for teams is 0.5 * ((Tm FGA + 0.4 * Tm FTA – 1.07 * (Tm ORB / (Tm ORB + Opp DRB)) * (Tm FGA – Tm FG) + Tm TOV) + (Opp FGA + 0.4 * Opp FTA – 1.07 * (Opp ORB / (Opp ORB + Tm DRB)) * (Opp FGA – Opp FG) + Opp TOV)).