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Typical handicapping trends the public uses in NFL and NCAA football

Football is unique in that it is virtually the only sport in which bettors have several days and sometimes weeks to analyze games and determine which picks they think are most likely to cover the point spread, money line or totals. Whether it’s the NFL or NCAA college football, most betting lines are posted either Monday or Tuesday and sometimes as early as Sunday night for the following weekend’s slate of games. That means there is a lot of time for bettors to carefully choose the picks they want to bet and try to determine which lines are soft and which ones should be avoided. And when it comes to the really big games, like the Super Bowl and the major bowl games, people will have weeks to check the lines and try to find the best bets.

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Favored Teams Draw More Action

When it comes to the general public, most people prefer to bet on the favorites instead of the underdogs. At least two-thirds and likely even more bets laid week in and week out will be on the favored teams, and that applies to virtually all sports. Professional sports bettors will take a longer look at underdogs and bet them more often than the general public will. But professional sports bettors also like to bet on the favorites more than the underdogs. Some of the reasons are the perceived weaknesses of underdogs versus the favored teams, and often times, favored teams are at home or have been winning impressively. While recent performance can suggest future outcomes, the public tends to overreact to either impressive wins or depressing losses. If a team rolls over its last opponent, bettors often times make the mistake of thinking that team is playing exceptionally good football as a whole when it simply may have enjoyed a favorable personnel matchup or just caught a team in a bad spot. And if a team gets rolled, bettors many times make the mistake of thinking it will continue. But a single instance does not make a trend, and many bettors fall into the trap of perceiving teams to be better or worse than they truly are based on the outcome of one game.

Televised Games See More Play

Bettors love to watch the games upon which they wager, and sports books that aren’t crowded generally provide a great place to track several games at once. When a game is televised on national TV, the number of bets laid on that game will be much larger as will the amount of the bets generally higher than those games that are shown only on regional television or not at all. For sports books, taking wagers on televised games can be very profitable due to the fact that television producers don’t want to air games that have obvious outcomes. They want compelling, tightly contested games that will keep viewers on their toes from opening kickoff until the clock runs out. That means bettors who wager primarily on televised games generally are taking a much greater risk than those who look for more predictable games.

Most Bets Are Laid the Day of the Game

Another advantage many sports books have over bettors is that most people wait until the day of the game to lay their bets. That can be a smart move if weather is a concern on game day or a key injury might occur during the days leading up to the game, but it can be a big mistake if the line opened soft in one team’s favor and moves in the other direction. Lines can move by one or more points from the moment they are first posted, and that means if a team has a favorable line and the professional bettors jump on it, the sports books will adjust it by increasing the vig or adjusting the spread. If a team is favored by -2.5 points, for example, and bets start coming in on that number, the sports book will bump it to -3 to -4 points by game day. For those bettors who waited until game day to lay a bet on the favorite, they could lose if the game is decided by a field goal. In fact, many professional bettors will wager on the favorite at -2.5 points, and if the line goes up to -3.5 or more, the smart bettor will lay an equal wager on the underdog. Over the long term, such bets will produce a profit due to football games so often being decided by a field goal.

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Explaining the Vig and your Money.

“Vig” is a fun word that a lot of people like to use to sound cool but don’t know what it really means. It’s short for “vigorish,” which is the interest you pay a bookie, sportsbook, or offshore book to bet on sports. In most cases, the vig is 10 percent and represents the amount the sportsbook charges in interest to place a wager. If you want to win $100 on a team and the vig is 10 percent, you will have to wager $110 as the house keeps 10 percent of the potential winnings.

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The ‘Vig’ and How It Works

Other than being a cool word lots of people hear only in gangster films, the “vig” is something most people don’t understand. Short for “vigorish,” the vig is nothing more than the tax or profit margin a sports book works with when accepting bets. When it comes to sports betting, the standard vig is 10 percent and generally is represented by “-110” when reading the lines at sportsbooks. What that means is, if you want to win $100, you have to bet $110. If your bet wins, you will collect your $110 wager plus $100 in profit. If your bet loses, you paid $110 for the chance to win $100. In most sports bets involving either a side or a total, -110 is the most common vig attached to a wager, but the vig can change in order to encourage wagers on the opposite side. If the vig is -115 for one side, it will be -105 on the other. A -120 vig means the other side will have even money in which $100 wins $100 while those wanting the -120 would need to lay $120 to win $100.

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Betting on Baseball and Hockey Betting Are Done Differently

While basketball and football betting lines are based on the scoring differential between two opposing teams, the way betting lines are set up for baseball and hockey are different. Because scoring is so limited in baseball games and hockey matches compared to relatively high-scoring football and basketball games, it would be nearly impossible to come up with truly effective betting lines based on differences in team scoring. Most lines likely would be within a couple runs of the other team in baseball and nearly impossible to place at other than one or two goals in hockey. So instead of using traditional side bets for those two sports, odds-makers have bettors place wagers based on which team will win with the vig adjusted accordingly. Totals bets for scoring essentially are the same for all sports, but the side bets do differ.

 

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Hidden secret in the world of sports betting 10 min south of San Diego called the Caliente Group

In case you didn’t know, there is a beautiful hidden secret in the world of sports betting and it is called the Caliente Group just a few setps south to San Diego. There are a few American’s who know about this group because, 15 percent of the Caliente Group’s profit comes from American bettors. 60 sportsbooks is what they offer to bettors and many of which are short trekked from cities like Tucson and San Diego. Why have you never head of them? There just isn’t much written about them. Again, it is a beautiful hidden secret of the “libro foraneo,” which means the “foreign book” in English. While, many of their sportsbooks are spread throughout various locations, Tijuanais home to 12 sportsbook locations. American business could be as high as 40 percent in these locations.

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